Ascot Saturday

1.15 BetMGM British EBF

October Stakes (Listed)

(Fillies & Mares) 7f

The straight course is divided in two until around two and a half furlongs out and the stands’ side part of the track is utilised for this fixture. In addition, the stalls will be on the stands’ rail and that should favour those drawn high.

In reality, the narrowing of the track means that there isn’t likely to be much in the draw, with even the low draws able to race on the middle to near side strip that tends to provide the best of the ground at Ascot. The configuration is the same for Friday’s meeting, and the results on day one will provide better clues.

It’s very hard to side against So Regal here, with the Gosden filly seemingly unsuited by softer ground when fifth in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown but back on a sound surface at a track where she has already won.

It’s not like the Atalanta run is one that needs forgiving, with So Regal beaten a length and a quarter and doing her best work late, but unable to quicken on the dead surface. She had split Lilt and Botagoz in the Michael Seely Memorial two starts back and a repeat of that would give her sound claims.

The main reason I can’t oppose her is that the daughter of Kingman is bred to keep progressing, with her dam Queen’s Trust successful in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and her grand-dam Queen’s Best progressed from handicaps to win the Winter Hill Stakes and finish a close second in the Princess Royal Stakes here on her final start.

So Regal looks in similar mould to those mares and the best is yet to come from her.

1.50 BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) 5f

Shagraan won this last year from stall four, beating Beautiful Diamond, who emerged from the highest stall. He’s drawn two here and is clearly fancied to double up, but there is some value in supporting Heavenly Heather each way, as she returns to the venue of her career-best effort.

Tracy Waggott’s mare finished well to be beaten less than a length and a half when sixth of 26 in the King Charles III Stakes here in June and she’s not had ideal conditions since.

Suited by a track with a stiff finish, all three of her wins - including a 200/1 shock - have come at Newcastle, but this track places similar demands on a sprinter and she is fancied to make the frame at rewarding odds having finished well ahead of both Shagraan and First Instinct at Royal Ascot.

2.25 BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

1m 3f 211yd

The usual bias towards high numbers on the round course is expected to be eroded here, not only due to the smaller fields, but the rail has been moved out on the round course to provide a much more sweeping turn, followed by a cutaway in the straight and that could favour those racing on the inside, for all a field of six for the Cumberland is not expected to be draw-affected at all.

Tenability has usually been ridden patiently this season, but he showed that he is tactically adaptable when making all for a game win in the August Stakes at Windsor last time.

He tends to stay on well in his races, whatever the tactics, and a return to this track (form figures here 1112) will suit, so he is taken to deny stablemate Al Aasy, who has twice been beaten in this race and whose only Ascot win over the years came in the Buckhounds Stakes back in 2022. Plage De Havre has improved of late, but that has corresponded with racing on softer ground, and I’d be a little surprised if Andrew Balding risked him if it rode good to firm on the day, as seems likely.

3.00 John Guest Racing

Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f

Prince Of India has looked much more straightforward since fitted with blinkers in the summer, looking unlucky not to run into the frame in the July Cup before a fine second in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury.

He gained reward for those improved efforts when winning the Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket last time and the return to group company will not be a concern given the strength of those earlier races.

If there is a slight concern, it’s that Marco Botti is swapping blinkers for cheek pieces now and it’s possible that he needs more severe headgear.

The way he travelled from the start at Newmarket last time was a revelation and it’s possible that the blinkers have done the job they were intended to and that he can continue his progress with the headgear changed down.

3.35 BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) 7f

Great Acclaim is one of a pair I’ve considered at prices for this valuable handicap, although it may be that Thunder Call proves a tough nut to crack.

The latter isn’t one I want to be against due to any inherent flaw, but his price alone tempers enthusiasm given how the formbook can go out of the window at this time of year.

Great Acclaim has run several very good races at Ascot before, making the frame on four of his five starts in course-and-distance handicaps. His best effort came when beaten a neck and the same when third to Mezcala in the Buckingham Palace Stakes in June.

Now 4lb better off with the winner, he has been given a chance by the handicapper and, although unplaced in the International Handicap on his last visit, he was beaten less than three and a half lengths and was going on at the finish.

In front of Great Aclaim that day was Arctic Dawn, who went on to win a competitive event at Newmarket. He has remained in form for the Kubler stable, finding a mile on softer ground against him at York before a creditable fourth back at Newmarket, where a slow start put him on the back foot.

He’s handicapped to the hilt at present and is likely to be priced accordingly, but he will give his running and, if able to get room from stall 18, has a fair chance of sneaking a share of the prize money under conditions that clearly bring out the best in him.

Newmarket

Saturday

1.00 £200,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes 7f

The Newmarket card makes no great punting appeal, with the two big favourites for the televised races expected to win. Night In Vegas has clearly got the strongest form claims in the Tattersalls October Auction Stakes, having already won similar prizes on the July Course and at Doncaster on his last two starts.

He will be better suited by seven furlongs than old rival Zigazig Ah and won’t need to be at his best to provide connections with another big payday.

1.35 BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)

(Fillies & Mares) 1m

Blue Bolt is another hot favourite who can’t be opposed on Saturday and Andrew Balding’s filly has developed into a top-notch performer this season. I’d not be at all surprised to see her cap her season with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in four weeks’ time and this would be the perfect stepping stone to that contest.

Recommended

Heavenly Heather 1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365 - 4 places; general 3 places)

Prince Of India 3.00 Ascot - 1.5pts win @ 10/3 (general; 7/2 Bet365)

Great Acclaim 3.35 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (general – 5 places)

Arctic Dawn 3.35 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (general – 5 places)